Taiwan’s energy dependence is ‘Achilles heel’ amid immense threat by China

Voters in Taiwan are headed to the polls on Saturday to decide whether Taipei should reignite its nuclear power capabilities as the island faces immense energy vulnerabilities amid growing concern over threats posed by China.

In May, Taiwan shut the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant — its last remaining nuclear plant — after the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) pledged in 2016 to phase out nuclear power by 2025 over concerns relating to nuclear fallout following the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan.

Security experts have since been sounding the alarm that the move further exposes Taiwan’s vulnerabilities to China as the island is highly dependent on energy imports, relying heavily on nations like the U.S., Australia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar for both Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and crude oil imports.

"Taiwan's energy dependence is an Achilles heel," Craig Singleton, China Program senior director and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said during a media call following a delegation’s visit to the island earlier this month.

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"Beijing can exploit this issue without firing a single shot," he added, noting the ease at which China can cut off trade to the island. “China can leverage its maritime dominance, its legal warfare and cyber tools to choke supply and test Taiwan’s political resilience.”

Over the last decade, Taiwan has imported up to 97% of its energy needs, largely through fossil fuel options, which currently make up a little over 90% of its energy usage, while renewables reportedly make up another 7%, according to FDD experts.

Though prior to its decision to cut ties with the alternative energy option, nuclear power was a strong supply source and provided nearly 12% of the island’s needs in 2011.

By 2021, that supply had dropped to roughly 9.5% and by the following year it had dipped to just over 4% before completely being eliminated this year.

Nuclear power for some nations, especially in Europe, has become a solution as they look to drop dependence on carbon-emitting fuels amid escalating concern over climate change.

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But some nations, like Germany, have taken a strong anti-nuclear approach over concerns relating to nuclear fallout — as seen following the devastating consequences of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster, which not only affected those in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine, but had resounding effects across Europe.

Berlin in 2023 also phased out nuclear power entirely — but Taiwan is facing some glaring security challenges that Germany is not.

Some opponents of nuclear power have also pointed out that wartime scenarios in recent years have shown the security risks surrounding active nuclear power plants — as seen during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its fight over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

But experts also argue that Taiwan would likely use up its stores of oil in a matter of weeks to days if China implemented a blockade, according to a report by DW.

Therefore, nuclear power would give Taipei an additional energy storage solution.

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"Nuclear power does, in my view, change that calculus, providing a lot of continuity under coercion, and I think it really complicates Beijing's playbook," Singleton argued.

Ultimately, he said that Taiwan needs to better diversify its energy needs in order to better protect against a potential Chinese blockade.

"The U.S. needs to help Taiwan diversify fast, cut exposure to vulnerable suppliers like Qatar, and probably prepare for a contest of endurance because I think that's exactly how China is thinking about this issue," he added, noting Qatar’s relationship with China and its large number of LNG exports to Bejing.

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Singleton pointed out that Ukraine has proven a helpful case study, not just when it comes to the vulnerabilities of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, but how an invading nation can target the vulnerabilities in every aspect of the energy sector.

"Ukraine shows that energy is one of the fastest ways to undermine a country's will. And obviously Russia targeted power to free cities and to fracture cohesion and to force concessions," Singleton explained. "I think Beijing is absolutely studying that playbook."